Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Market update and projections 8/24/2011



Our Market Projections are holding fairly steady. With all the ups and downs of the current market, our projections for real estate are unchanged. The only thing that is uncertain is how quickly banks will release the pent up foreclosure. There is one thought that the mortgage companies will slowly release this "Shadow inventory" onto the market, this would bring about a slower processing of the inventory, but may also not impact pricing as dramatically I, on the other hand, would rather rip off the band-aid and have all of the foreclosure (shadow inventory) come onto the market at once. This would impact pricing, because each home sold at foreclosure pricing will be a comparable for every "normal" sale home. But this method would speed up or shorten the time for market recovery. The faster we can move the shadow inventory through the market, the faster we can have a healthier market.
Until it happens, we are not sure what the banks have planned. But the results will roughly be the same. This fall and winter (through the 1st quarter of 2012) home prices will drop,sccording to a vast number of economic sources, anywhere from 3 to 4.5 percent. If the band-aid is ripped off, the the end of the 1st quarter 2012, prices should begin to rise through-out the year from 1.5 to 2 percent. Should the "Shadow Inventory" be leaked out, by the end of the 3rd quarter, prices should rise about 2-2.5 percent. Each method will lead to, it is speculated, a three year trend in rising home prices. But in order to get to the increase, we must 1st weed through the forclosures.
This is a great time to buy. With very low priced homes and Mortgage rates at a 40 year low. We anticipate a lot of buying traffic.

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